One Night Ultimate Werewolf

One Night Ultimate Werewolf
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#221

Yep, that’s what I was banking on, but the only thing we have to worry about when crossfire happens is the Tanner, because they’re the one who makes everyone lose; however, if we’re pretty sure neither of you are the Tanner, then we can do a blanket vote and then Town still wins, because:

At this point, too many people are being suspicious or contradictory for me to believe that there’s no Werewolf. If you really are a Villager, then you should be alright with this plan (unless you believe Ho-Oh’s suggestion that Zoska’s the Tanner, which I doubt because you said you thought she might be lone Werewolf) because if one of you is the Werewolf, then Town wins anyways. And anyways, if there’s Werewolves and we hit anyone besides a Werewolf, Town loses anyways, so we might as well take a gamble.

I didn’t point this out last round, but when I was trying to get the vote off of jdthebud as Tanner, what I didn’t mention was that in the two situations, Werewolves have the most to lose from this because the Tanner’s win means their loss, as does being lynched themselves.

Guess I’ll initiate it anyways with a [Vote] Zoska in good faith and hope people understand the game plan.


#222

Oh jd did claim lol

Shiny, Aldo and Johnny are also sus too. I think in the chat Johnny said he had computer problems?

But Shiny and Aldo should have no problem claiming, right? Unless they have nothing good to claim.


#223

502, yep…

Here’s the thing though. There is no “nothing good” to claim in this game; the only thing we have to worry about is FALSE claims, in which case that would be with the purpose of deceiving the Town. Not claiming may be an attempt to appear suspicious because they’re “feigning Town” to the Town, but Town in no way benefits from not claiming their role (unless they’re worried about being switched to NOT Town), and Werewolves don’t either because it just draws attention.

Okay I can’t understand what happened up here anymore so I’m just going to redo it completely.
Uncertain people pool: Zoska, Spaget, Aldo, Shiny, Johnny
Uncertain/unclaimed roles pool: Seer, Villager, Werewolf x 2, Tanner, Troublemaker, Robber, Minion

All of those are extremely helpful, and they’d be less likely to not claim because they’re the ones who are initiating the switches in the first place. Right now, I’m led to believe that one of them is the Tanner, and then one of them might have been the Robber and switched with either the Tanner, Werewolf, or Minion and therefore isn’t saying anything. Hence my path of logic for lynching the other two.

EDIT: Okay, jeez we might have more of a mess on our hands than we think. I forgot to consider the Minion in all of this junk, give me a minute…


#224

Unless… Zoska is the Minion and is protecting the real Werewolf? Aldo seemed to jump right into agreeing with her.


#225

Scenario 1:
Zoska: Seer
Spaget: Werewolf
~Rest don’t matter

Scenario 2
Zoska: Werewolf
Spaget: Villager
~Rest don’t matter

If those two don’t work out, then we’ll have to consider alternate scenarios with the rest of the people, which would mean… (Also, I’d highly suspect that Johnny is the Troublemaker or something, or I mean I don’t know but we’ve got a lot of unclaimed stuff and I feel like we’d have more claims than we do now)

Scenario 3
Zoska: Minion, and bluffing?
Spaget: Villager
Shiny/Aldo: Werewolf and Tanner? Or robbed from one of the prior two teams.
Johnny: Anything that’s left…

In which case, we’d really be screwed; but the willingness to make a bluff would put Zoska in an extremely bad position, if she were to be called out, which means there’s a high chance she might not actually be the Werewolf either. And then we’d have no idea which of the non-claimers to lynch, although if I’d have to go with anyone I’d say Shiny because that would be the point where it were safe to not claim and leave people uncertain. We really need Johnny to get his thread fixed.

Scenario 4: courtesy of Nica
Zoska: Tanner
Spaget: Villager (or if Zoska has no info for us, does that mean Spaget could be a Werewolf? ugh)
Shiny/Aldo: Werewolf and Werewolf/Minion? Still no reason to not claim, which is why I doubt it.
Johnny: Whatever’s left

Putting it out there for consideration’s sake.

In response to your statement about Aldo; I didn’t realize we already had Aldo’s vote out, that’s interesting alright… but keep in mind the Werewolves don’t actually know who the Minion is, that’s an awfully fast bandwagon if I ever saw one and maybe way too bold; but does his willingness to agree make him seem more Town for agreeing with evidence straightaway that would normally win the game, or make him seem Werewolf because he knows that the person they’re lynching isn’t a Werewolf? Or Tanner because he’s just bandwagoning to seem sus :thonk:

I think you might be right actually that he’s not Tanner, because I don’t think the Tanner would join an evidence train like that so quickly. Given those circumstances, that doesn’t actually seem like he was “trying to make himself suspicious”, so I think I’ll agree with you and [Vote] Aldo. For now. I’m very uncertain (and very in need of discussion), xD


#226

I figured Zoska was a lone Werewolf since she seemed to know Seer was a safe role to claim, possibly by checking the center deck. Ugh, I forgot about the Minion. -.-" It could be that instead of a lone Werewolf she’s actually the Minion, diverting attention to herself by calling me out to protect the wolve(s?)

It’d be nice if we actually knew what was in the center deck so we could know for sure how many wolves we’re dealing with. If there is only one wolf, then they could’ve told Zoska about the Seer role so she could claim it while the wolf hides out. I’m still not sure about her being Tanner, but it’s not entirely impossible…

Edit: That last paragraph is basically null and void, I forgot the wolves don’t know who the Minion is. Unless she got really lucky with her claim, I’m even less sure which role she is specifically, but she’s certainly not Town. I think wolf could still be more likely.


#227

Now I’m starting to settle into a bias, but before I do completely I’ll try to explain my line of thought completely so that others can follow. But for the most part, it follow Scenario 3:

  • I’m thinking it might be pretty likely that you’re a Villager… I was doubtful at first, because having all three Villager claims right out the gate is pretty sketchy, and it’s the safest thing to claim as you saw last time. However, there hasn’t been any more CC’s from this point out and instead there’s a lot of suspects other than yourself that have been popping up. So that’s one down.
  • Zoska could be any of the three roles at this point; Werewolf, Tanner, or Minion. While also claiming Seer.
    • In one situation, she actually is Seer and visited you, but that contradicts you, in which case we should lynch you.
    • Number two, she used a lone Werewolf ability to check the middle deck for Seer, or there’s 1+ Werewolves and the Seer claim was lucky since nobody’s CC’d it so far. Or Johnny’s Seer. Who knows.
    • Number three, she’s Minion and got really lucky with her bluff so far. More probable than the ‘lucky Wolf’ situation because the minion is more able to take risks like that.
    • Four, she’s Tanner and asking to get lynched by bluffing, but the bluff didn’t work and we’re actually going to lynch Spaget if nobody changes their mind?
  • Aldo both did not claim, and also agreed with Zoska far too quickly. So that means, corresponding to the first situations:
    • Aldo is actually Town, and believed Zoska; but then this doesn’t make sense, because if he knows he’s Town why hasn’t he claimed yet?
    • Aldo is Minion and backing a known Werewolf.
    • Aldo is Werewolf and backing a bandwagon because he knows it’s not aiming at Town.
    • Aldo is Tanner and that’s why he didn’t claim?

Now, this is where it gets interesting. Why do I think it’s unlikely that Aldo is the Tanner? Because Tanners don’t join bandwagons, because bandwagons work. Why would he not claim a role, but join a bandwagon that might actually have a chance of succeeding? But alternatively, if he was pretty sure he was/thought he was Town, then why would he not give any information about his role? It doesn’t add up. So that means I think we can narrow him down to being either a Werewolf or the Minion, in all likelihood.

So what does that imply about Zoska? For starters, I think this actually more or less clears Spaget’s name, because a Minion or a Werewolf wouldn’t help to put a second vote on a lynch which is aimed at another Werewolf. But if that’s the case, then we can deduce at least that Zoska isn’t the Seer, because then that would be lying.

If Zoska really were the Tanner, I just think it was a really odd choice to claim Seer and then accuse Spaget of being a Werewolf, when Spaget had been a Villager already. If it comes down to that, then it’s Spaget’s word vs. Zoska, and Zoska hasn’t put out any follow up at all after your first response, which almost makes me seem like she’s also trying to avoid suspicion instead of draw it. If you’re still worried about that though, we don’t have to lynch Zoska if you don’t want to.

But it seems the most likely to me that Zoska and Aldo are a Minion-Werewolf or a Werewolf-Minion pair, unless our unclaimed Troublemaker and Robber have messed it up at all. The Robber and the Tanner would explain why we’ve got such a large amount of odd behavior. I’d lean Zoska as the Minion and Aldo as the actual Werewolf, which is why he’s laying low while Zoska’s taking the risks. I’d be willing to lynch them both in this case if we’re still not sure but I don’t think either of them are the Tanner.

Final Tally, by my count
Zoska as Minion
Aldo as Werewolf
Spaget as Villager
Shiny as Tanner? or Robber into one of the above. “I’ve got nothin” after so much direct pressure would make me think that.
Johnny as either Troublemaker, maybe Robber, maybe the second Werewolf. We can’t get any reads on him because 502.

Sorry for overthinking it, but maybe this thorough explanation might help to change some of your minds xD


#228

It’s amazing how much info you can get just from what’s been said lol From what I’ve read from you guys, it does seem like Aldo may be trying to back Zoska up in some way, whether as wolf or Minion. But if you think Aldo is more likely to be the Werewolf and Zoska the lucky-claiming Minion, then I’ll go ahead with a vote. The only other person I find any bit sus is Shiny, but as you said, her almost-silence seems to be a Tanner tactic more than anything else.

[Lynch] Aldo


#229

Holy walls of text, Batman!

I really want to see what Johnny and Shiny claim to be before casting my vote. Depending on what they say our whole strategy could change.


#230

TLDR


#231

What, you want a TL;DR? Darn greedy humans…

  • Don’t think Aldo thinks he’s Town or he would have claimed.
  • Don’t think Aldo is Tanner or he wouldn’t have joined a somewhat reasonable vote.
  • If that makes Aldo either Werewolf or Minion then he wouldn’t vote Spaget if she were also a Werewolf.
  • If Spaget’s not a Werewolf, then you lied about being a Seer.
  • If you lied and Aldo went along with it, then either you made a random lie as Tanner that works out to him to follow, or you’re on the same side.
  • No switches have been made public yet so we don’t even know who’s what.
  • Still waiting to see if either Aldo, Shiny, or Johnny wants to/is able to make a statement.

I don’t suppose I can convince you to vote Aldo, then… :thonk:


#232

What do you mean by “are you sober”?


#233

Code for “did you switch roles as the Drunk”, since Aldo did that last round and became the Doppleganger, but all he ever claimed was that he was the Drunk.

I can’t remember if I wanted to ask anything else, but I’m sure someone will argue back and remind me at some point…

EDIT: Actually, I guess the Drunk doesn’t know what they become, so that’s of almost no use to ask whatsoever, and even if you did switch roles we wouldn’t know whether or not you were a threat, and neither would you. Never mind…


#234

Yes that’s why I was confused too…


#235

Aldo is not a werewolf — he’s town. I’m a villager, provided no actions unknown to me have happened to my self. I’ll not change the vote, since it’s not impossible to reroll the same role twice in a row.


#236

That’s… some weird third person thing going on there dude. It’s convenient you claim villager now after all the discussion. Sorry dude but I’m getting scum vibes. [vote] Aldo


#237

Herein lies the problem. Why didn’t you claim when you decided to lynch Spaget? A fourth Villager claim would have been the CC you needed in order to incriminate Spaget. Is this because you thought that the evidence was solid enough to win already, or you didn’t want to become a suspect as one of four Villagers?

Well, at this point, we’re stuck in a word vs. word situation, and somehow we find ourselves lynching someone against direct evidence :wobblurk: Either Spaget, Aldo, and Zoska are Villager, Minion, and Werewolf or Werewolf, Seer, and Villager. Spaget’s been talking a lot as well, but that could easily be because what I said doesn’t incriminate her. Not including switches, here’s my proposal:

Lynch both Aldo and Spaget. Now that we’re here, one of you has to be wrong, but you can’t be too sure, so whoever’s Town will win from this situation even if you die. We’re at 3 for Aldo and 2 for Spaget so we can balance it out as we go. Anyone got problems with that?

(I’ll [Abstain] for now if I have to)


#238

I’m good with that.


#239

See, I think that’s why we’ve never gone with this course of action before, because Tanner can jump in (maybe alreay has?) and get themselves killed with a tie vote to secure their win.


#240

Spaget, what are you implying :thonk:

There’s no situation where it’s looked like you were Tanner, and if you’re suggesting you’re Tanner why would you even softclaim? But you were alright with lynching Aldo, so that’s not it either.

Maybe Zoska wasn’t lying and I got baited