Now I’m starting to settle into a bias, but before I do completely I’ll try to explain my line of thought completely so that others can follow. But for the most part, it follow Scenario 3:
- I’m thinking it might be pretty likely that you’re a Villager… I was doubtful at first, because having all three Villager claims right out the gate is pretty sketchy, and it’s the safest thing to claim as you saw last time. However, there hasn’t been any more CC’s from this point out and instead there’s a lot of suspects other than yourself that have been popping up. So that’s one down.
- Zoska could be any of the three roles at this point; Werewolf, Tanner, or Minion. While also claiming Seer.
- In one situation, she actually is Seer and visited you, but that contradicts you, in which case we should lynch you.
- Number two, she used a lone Werewolf ability to check the middle deck for Seer, or there’s 1+ Werewolves and the Seer claim was lucky since nobody’s CC’d it so far. Or Johnny’s Seer. Who knows.
- Number three, she’s Minion and got really lucky with her bluff so far. More probable than the ‘lucky Wolf’ situation because the minion is more able to take risks like that.
- Four, she’s Tanner and asking to get lynched by bluffing, but the bluff didn’t work and we’re actually going to lynch Spaget if nobody changes their mind?
- Aldo both did not claim, and also agreed with Zoska far too quickly. So that means, corresponding to the first situations:
- Aldo is actually Town, and believed Zoska; but then this doesn’t make sense, because if he knows he’s Town why hasn’t he claimed yet?
- Aldo is Minion and backing a known Werewolf.
- Aldo is Werewolf and backing a bandwagon because he knows it’s not aiming at Town.
- Aldo is Tanner and that’s why he didn’t claim?
Now, this is where it gets interesting. Why do I think it’s unlikely that Aldo is the Tanner? Because Tanners don’t join bandwagons, because bandwagons work. Why would he not claim a role, but join a bandwagon that might actually have a chance of succeeding? But alternatively, if he was pretty sure he was/thought he was Town, then why would he not give any information about his role? It doesn’t add up. So that means I think we can narrow him down to being either a Werewolf or the Minion, in all likelihood.
So what does that imply about Zoska? For starters, I think this actually more or less clears Spaget’s name, because a Minion or a Werewolf wouldn’t help to put a second vote on a lynch which is aimed at another Werewolf. But if that’s the case, then we can deduce at least that Zoska isn’t the Seer, because then that would be lying.
If Zoska really were the Tanner, I just think it was a really odd choice to claim Seer and then accuse Spaget of being a Werewolf, when Spaget had been a Villager already. If it comes down to that, then it’s Spaget’s word vs. Zoska, and Zoska hasn’t put out any follow up at all after your first response, which almost makes me seem like she’s also trying to avoid suspicion instead of draw it. If you’re still worried about that though, we don’t have to lynch Zoska if you don’t want to.
But it seems the most likely to me that Zoska and Aldo are a Minion-Werewolf or a Werewolf-Minion pair, unless our unclaimed Troublemaker and Robber have messed it up at all. The Robber and the Tanner would explain why we’ve got such a large amount of odd behavior. I’d lean Zoska as the Minion and Aldo as the actual Werewolf, which is why he’s laying low while Zoska’s taking the risks. I’d be willing to lynch them both in this case if we’re still not sure but I don’t think either of them are the Tanner.
Final Tally, by my count
Zoska as Minion
Aldo as Werewolf
Spaget as Villager
Shiny as Tanner? or Robber into one of the above. “I’ve got nothin” after so much direct pressure would make me think that.
Johnny as either Troublemaker, maybe Robber, maybe the second Werewolf. We can’t get any reads on him because 502.
Sorry for overthinking it, but maybe this thorough explanation might help to change some of your minds xD